When Money Becomes a Game
June 2026
Letter to Our Clients
What is happening in the prediction markets is very concerning! Prediction markets are a relatively new form of speculation where people can place financial bets on everything from elections and economic outcomes to cultural events and public figures. Prediction or more aptly named Gambling markets require your attention because they most likely hold the attention of someone you love.They can also slowly, or quite rapidly, eat away at your life’s work.
Before we go there, let’s take a step back. For decades, there was a joke repeated across television shows, investing books, and financial media that a chimpanzee throwing darts at stock listings could out perform professional investors.
This wasn’t just a joke. Experiments like it made their way onto game shows in the 1980s and 1990s. The premise captured some things people intuitively understood about markets: short-term outcomes are often unpredictable, experts can be over confident, and luck matters more than we care to admit.
Even then, investing was still largely connected to ownership, in the forms of owning businesses, participating in economic growth, and building wealth gradually through patience, discipline, and compounding.
What concerns me today isn’t that speculation exists, because speculation has always existed. It’s how dramatically the environment surrounding money has changed, particularly for the younger generations.
For the past several years, the lines between investing, gambling, entertainment, and social media have become increasingly difficult to distinguish.
Recently, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an investigation into prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket titled “WhyAlmost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets.” The findings were striking. WSJ analyzed 1.6 million Polymarket accounts and found 67% of all profits went to just 0.1% of users. More than 70% of users lost money overall.
One story in particular has stayed with me. A 33-year-old former line cook recovering from a car accident turned a few thousand dollars into more than $40,000 trading on prediction markets before eventually losing everything on one highly speculative bet tied to whether a celebrity would say a specific word during a television appearance. He’s now living in a homeless shelter.
It would be so easy to dismiss this story as reckless behavior or poor judgment, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
Many younger Americans are navigating an environment where housing feels increasingly unobtainable, traditional career paths feel less stable, and social media continuously amplifies lifestyles that appear immediate and extraordinary. In this world, systems promising accelerated financial outcomes are emotionally powerful.
Importantly, these systems don’t feel foreign to many younger users because they grew up inside similarly structured platforms. They were raised in environments shaped by notifications, rankings, streaks, rewards, likes, followers, and algorithmic reinforcement. Video games were persistent economies, and social media transformed attention into measurable status. Large portions of life became gamified long before money did.
Now, many financial platforms are adopting similar mechanics.
The danger isn’t merely financial loss. The deeper concern is these systems gradually reshape a person’s relationship with money, risk, patience, and attention.
What makes this especially difficult is that much of it is perfectly legal and culturally normalized.
Prediction markets position themselves as financial innovators. Sports-betting advertisements run during major sporting events. Trading platforms are marketed as tools for empowerment and participation. Much of it can feel as socially acceptable as having a drink after work.
But the behavioral addictions are real:
Gambling addiction.
Trading addiction.
Digital dependency.
And, unlike older forms of gambling, much of this kind happens quietly and continuously through a device we carry in our pockets and hands all day long.
As families are thinking about generational wealth, I believe we need to pay attention to this shift. Because generational wealth isn’t sustained primarily through intelligence or even high income; it’s sustained through stewardship,emotional regulation, patience, long-term thinking, and the ability to separateexcitement from wisdom.
Many of the systems gaining traction today train the opposite instincts.
If families aren’t intentional about teaching healthy relationships with money, technology, risk, and attention, then the surrounding culture will teach those lessons instead.
I predict this will become one of the most defining wealth challenges of the next generation.
In gratitude,
Brandon Hatton
CEO & Chief Investment Officer
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Letter to Our Clients
What is happening in the prediction markets is very concerning! Prediction markets are a relatively new form of speculation where people can place financial bets on everything from elections and economic outcomes to cultural events and public figures. Prediction or more aptly named Gambling markets require your attention because they most likely hold the attention of someone you love.They can also slowly, or quite rapidly, eat away at your life’s work.
Before we go there, let’s take a step back. For decades, there was a joke repeated across television shows, investing books, and financial media that a chimpanzee throwing darts at stock listings could out perform professional investors.
This wasn’t just a joke. Experiments like it made their way onto game shows in the 1980s and 1990s. The premise captured some things people intuitively understood about markets: short-term outcomes are often unpredictable, experts can be over confident, and luck matters more than we care to admit.
Even then, investing was still largely connected to ownership, in the forms of owning businesses, participating in economic growth, and building wealth gradually through patience, discipline, and compounding.
What concerns me today isn’t that speculation exists, because speculation has always existed. It’s how dramatically the environment surrounding money has changed, particularly for the younger generations.
For the past several years, the lines between investing, gambling, entertainment, and social media have become increasingly difficult to distinguish.
Recently, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an investigation into prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket titled “WhyAlmost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets.” The findings were striking. WSJ analyzed 1.6 million Polymarket accounts and found 67% of all profits went to just 0.1% of users. More than 70% of users lost money overall.
One story in particular has stayed with me. A 33-year-old former line cook recovering from a car accident turned a few thousand dollars into more than $40,000 trading on prediction markets before eventually losing everything on one highly speculative bet tied to whether a celebrity would say a specific word during a television appearance. He’s now living in a homeless shelter.
It would be so easy to dismiss this story as reckless behavior or poor judgment, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
Many younger Americans are navigating an environment where housing feels increasingly unobtainable, traditional career paths feel less stable, and social media continuously amplifies lifestyles that appear immediate and extraordinary. In this world, systems promising accelerated financial outcomes are emotionally powerful.
Importantly, these systems don’t feel foreign to many younger users because they grew up inside similarly structured platforms. They were raised in environments shaped by notifications, rankings, streaks, rewards, likes, followers, and algorithmic reinforcement. Video games were persistent economies, and social media transformed attention into measurable status. Large portions of life became gamified long before money did.
Now, many financial platforms are adopting similar mechanics.
The danger isn’t merely financial loss. The deeper concern is these systems gradually reshape a person’s relationship with money, risk, patience, and attention.
What makes this especially difficult is that much of it is perfectly legal and culturally normalized.
Prediction markets position themselves as financial innovators. Sports-betting advertisements run during major sporting events. Trading platforms are marketed as tools for empowerment and participation. Much of it can feel as socially acceptable as having a drink after work.
But the behavioral addictions are real:
Gambling addiction.
Trading addiction.
Digital dependency.
And, unlike older forms of gambling, much of this kind happens quietly and continuously through a device we carry in our pockets and hands all day long.
As families are thinking about generational wealth, I believe we need to pay attention to this shift. Because generational wealth isn’t sustained primarily through intelligence or even high income; it’s sustained through stewardship,emotional regulation, patience, long-term thinking, and the ability to separateexcitement from wisdom.
Many of the systems gaining traction today train the opposite instincts.
If families aren’t intentional about teaching healthy relationships with money, technology, risk, and attention, then the surrounding culture will teach those lessons instead.
I predict this will become one of the most defining wealth challenges of the next generation.
In gratitude,
Brandon Hatton
CEO & Chief Investment Officer
