A Longer View: The Discipline of Looking Back
January 2026
Letter to Our Clients
I was once a history teacher and one of my favorite things was to start the year off with Carl Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar. If you remember, it is a way of visualizing the entire history of the universe by compressing it into one calendar year. What I loved about it was that it really showed you that what may seem big or unsurmountable can often just be a blip in history. Spoiler alert: humans show up in the final seconds of that calendar.
The start of a fiscal new year often invites reflection. Most market letters look back on twelve months and try to make sense of what has already passed. I want to take a page out of Carl Sagan’s book and take a different approach and widen the lens.
Imagine compressing the last twelve years (2013-2025) of economic life into a single calendar year. One year that holds recovery and disruption, innovation, and uncertainty. One year that unfolds alongside ordinary life. Family gatherings. Seasonal rhythms. Quiet moments where markets intersect with lived experience, often without much notice.
To orient the story, we will reference the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a companion to the narrative.
January begins with a familiar feeling. The energy of the holiday fades. We return to routine with a mix of resolve and hesitation. This mirrors the years following the financial crisis. The economy was healing, but the damage had not disappeared. Foreclosures remained visible. Employment took time to recover. The Dow closed 2013 at 16,576.66. Improvement, but fragile.
Soon after came a reminder that even recovery carries tension. The Federal Reserve signaled a shift toward tighter policy, and markets responded quickly. Yields rose. Stocks wavered. By the end of the month, things steadied, but the message lingered. Progress is rarely smooth, and comfort often arrives after discomfort.
February and March stretched on like a long winter. Familiar patterns with moments that tested balance. This period reflects 2014 and 2015. Oil prices collapsed. Global conflicts reemerged. Quantitative easing came to an end. The Dow rose to 17,823.07 in 2014, then slipped to 17,425.03 in 2015. Growth continued, though confidence required patience.
Spring brought a different kind of movement. Political shifts altered expectations in 2016. Brexit surprised markets. A U.S. election reframed global conversations. Life continued in parallel. Games, gatherings, routines. Markets adjusted and moved forward. By the end of the year, the Dow reached 19,762.60. Change arrived, but adaptation followed.
Summer carried a sense of ease. Fewer headlines. Steadier days. This reflected 2017. Volatility receded. Growth felt uncomplicated. The Dow climbed to 24,719.22. These periods often feel obvious only in hindsight. Calm rarely announces itself.
Then the rhythm broke.
September marked an abrupt pause. Daily life narrowed. Work and home merged. This captured 2020. Markets fell sharply, then recovered with historic support. The Dow ended the year at 30,606.48. A reminder that markets and human experience do not always move together yet remain connected.
October brought a different tension. Inflation returned in a way many had not experienced before. Supply chains strained. Energy prices rose. The Federal Reserve responded. Markets recalibrated. The Dow reached 36,338.30 in 2021, then retreated to 33,147.25 in 2022. Purchasing power mattered again. Discipline mattered again.
By November, conversation shifted. Around tables and during walks, attention turned toward a new force. Artificial intelligence. Less theoretical. More present. The Dow closed 2023 at 37,689.54 as technology once again reshaped expectations.
December arrived with both optimism and questions. Artificial intelligence moved from novelty to daily presence. Families talked about careers, opportunities, and uncertainty for the next generation. Markets reflected that momentum. The Dow closed 2024 at 42,544.22 and rose to 48,063.29 by the end of 2025.
Twelve years, told as twelve months.
Across crises, recoveries, and reinvention, the Dow nearly tripled. About 9.3% annualized. Not a straight line. Not predictable. But resilient.
Looking ahead to 2026, or further into the future, uncertainty remains part of the landscape. Technology advances. Policy shifts. Markets respond. What tends to endure is preparation. Perspective over prediction. Discipline over reaction.
If you would like to talk through how this perspective connects to your portfolio or your broader financial life, I am always glad to continue the conversation.
In abundance,
Brandon Hatton
President, Chief Investment Officer
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Read Now >>January 2026
Letter to Our Clients
I was once a history teacher and one of my favorite things was to start the year off with Carl Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar. If you remember, it is a way of visualizing the entire history of the universe by compressing it into one calendar year. What I loved about it was that it really showed you that what may seem big or unsurmountable can often just be a blip in history. Spoiler alert: humans show up in the final seconds of that calendar.
The start of a fiscal new year often invites reflection. Most market letters look back on twelve months and try to make sense of what has already passed. I want to take a page out of Carl Sagan’s book and take a different approach and widen the lens.
Imagine compressing the last twelve years (2013-2025) of economic life into a single calendar year. One year that holds recovery and disruption, innovation, and uncertainty. One year that unfolds alongside ordinary life. Family gatherings. Seasonal rhythms. Quiet moments where markets intersect with lived experience, often without much notice.
To orient the story, we will reference the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a companion to the narrative.
January begins with a familiar feeling. The energy of the holiday fades. We return to routine with a mix of resolve and hesitation. This mirrors the years following the financial crisis. The economy was healing, but the damage had not disappeared. Foreclosures remained visible. Employment took time to recover. The Dow closed 2013 at 16,576.66. Improvement, but fragile.
Soon after came a reminder that even recovery carries tension. The Federal Reserve signaled a shift toward tighter policy, and markets responded quickly. Yields rose. Stocks wavered. By the end of the month, things steadied, but the message lingered. Progress is rarely smooth, and comfort often arrives after discomfort.
February and March stretched on like a long winter. Familiar patterns with moments that tested balance. This period reflects 2014 and 2015. Oil prices collapsed. Global conflicts reemerged. Quantitative easing came to an end. The Dow rose to 17,823.07 in 2014, then slipped to 17,425.03 in 2015. Growth continued, though confidence required patience.
Spring brought a different kind of movement. Political shifts altered expectations in 2016. Brexit surprised markets. A U.S. election reframed global conversations. Life continued in parallel. Games, gatherings, routines. Markets adjusted and moved forward. By the end of the year, the Dow reached 19,762.60. Change arrived, but adaptation followed.
Summer carried a sense of ease. Fewer headlines. Steadier days. This reflected 2017. Volatility receded. Growth felt uncomplicated. The Dow climbed to 24,719.22. These periods often feel obvious only in hindsight. Calm rarely announces itself.
Then the rhythm broke.
September marked an abrupt pause. Daily life narrowed. Work and home merged. This captured 2020. Markets fell sharply, then recovered with historic support. The Dow ended the year at 30,606.48. A reminder that markets and human experience do not always move together yet remain connected.
October brought a different tension. Inflation returned in a way many had not experienced before. Supply chains strained. Energy prices rose. The Federal Reserve responded. Markets recalibrated. The Dow reached 36,338.30 in 2021, then retreated to 33,147.25 in 2022. Purchasing power mattered again. Discipline mattered again.
By November, conversation shifted. Around tables and during walks, attention turned toward a new force. Artificial intelligence. Less theoretical. More present. The Dow closed 2023 at 37,689.54 as technology once again reshaped expectations.
December arrived with both optimism and questions. Artificial intelligence moved from novelty to daily presence. Families talked about careers, opportunities, and uncertainty for the next generation. Markets reflected that momentum. The Dow closed 2024 at 42,544.22 and rose to 48,063.29 by the end of 2025.
Twelve years, told as twelve months.
Across crises, recoveries, and reinvention, the Dow nearly tripled. About 9.3% annualized. Not a straight line. Not predictable. But resilient.
Looking ahead to 2026, or further into the future, uncertainty remains part of the landscape. Technology advances. Policy shifts. Markets respond. What tends to endure is preparation. Perspective over prediction. Discipline over reaction.
If you would like to talk through how this perspective connects to your portfolio or your broader financial life, I am always glad to continue the conversation.
In abundance,
Brandon Hatton
President, Chief Investment Officer
